Bryant, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

361
FXUS64 KLZK 122311
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
611 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Low clouds made their way into parts of southern and central AR
earlier today. However, due to the shallow nature of the moisture
field, gusty south and southwest winds caused the clouds to
dissipate by midday. Otherwise, warm condtions were noted over the
FA with early aftn temps mainly in the 70s.

Focus quickly turns a new storm system that wl cont to head our way
from TX. This feature is progged to move acrs the FA tngt and early
Thu, bringing with it sctd showers/storms. Some of the CAMS are
are still in disagreement with the eventual track of the system.
While some solutions rmn consistent, a few others show and more
southward track. Not planning to deviate much fm the current fcst.

Convection is expected to dvlp late this aftn acrs SE OK and NE TX,
then work eastward thereafter. There is already ample MLCAPE noted
in this area, but there rmns a stout mid lvl cap in place. The cap
is fcst to erode later today as the upper system apchs that area.
As such, the potential conts for some svr storms to affect parts
of western and southwest AR early this evening, with large hail
and damaging winds the main threats. An overall dcrs in storm
intensity is expected later tngt as the activity moves further to
the east.

Cannot rule out some lingering rainfall over eastern AR early Thu
mrng. Otherwise, drier conds wl return with highs Thu aftn warming
back into the 70s and lower 80s. Nighttime lows wl stay in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

To begin the period, unsettled weather will move into the area.
Model guidance continues to suggest that central and eastern
Arkansas could see strong to severe storms Friday afternoon and
evening...a big question that will have to resolved over the next
couple of days will be how much moisture is associated with this
system and when do storms begin to fire along and ahead of the
front. Basically, how long will the cap hold? Models continue to
support an environment that would be supportive for tornadoes and
damaging winds as instability and wind shear seems to be abundant.
But some model guidance suggests lack of moisture until the front
gets into eastern Arkansas and near the Mississippi River. Eastern
Arkansas will likely see the best chance for severe storms.

With all of that said, the set up for Friday afternoon and evening
is still concerning and the ingredients are coming together that
could lead to severe weather across portions of the state. The
threat, right now, appears to be conditional and Arkansans should
remain weather aware going into the end of the workweek. Please
continue to check back for the most up-to-date weather information
and remember to follow only reliable sources.

Drier conditions are expected behind the system on Friday leading to
a nice, spring-like weekend for the Natural State.

Temperatures are expected to be mostly average to slightly-above
average through the period. Temperatures will be warmest early in
the period before cooling slightly as a cold front passes through
the state Friday afternoon. High temperatures Friday afternoon are
expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight low
temperatures falling into the lower 50s to lower 60s. High
temperatures for the weekend are expected to be in the lower 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

The northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK will remain in VFR flight
category. The central and southern terminals of KLIT, KHOT, KADF,
KPBF, and KLLQ may see a complex of rain and thunderstorm activity
on Wednesday evening into Wednesday night that may lead to a period
of variable gusty winds which have been captured in tempo groups as
rain and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to track across central
and southern Arkansas which may lower flight category to as low as
IFR for VSBY and CIGS. Low level wind shear will be present at the
terminals of KHOT, KADF, and KLIT beginning Wednesday evening into
the early morning hours on Thursday. All terminals will return to
VFR flight category around Noon on Thursday as this activity will
quickly move out of the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  79  56  80 /  40  10   0  30
Camden AR         57  81  56  81 /  70   0   0  20
Harrison AR       54  79  56  76 /  30   0   0  40
Hot Springs AR    54  79  55  79 /  70   0   0  30
Little Rock   AR  57  79  57  80 /  60  10   0  30
Monticello AR     60  81  59  81 /  60  10   0  30
Mount Ida AR      52  81  55  78 /  60   0   0  30
Mountain Home AR  55  79  56  77 /  30  10   0  40
Newport AR        57  76  58  78 /  50  20   0  30
Pine Bluff AR     58  79  57  81 /  60  10   0  20
Russellville AR   55  81  55  79 /  50   0   0  30
Searcy AR         55  78  55  79 /  60  20   0  30
Stuttgart AR      59  78  59  79 /  70  10   0  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...74